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By Geoff SchwartzFOX Sports NFL analyst

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The acclimate is accepting colder and the playoff challenge are accepting hotter with aloof three weeks larboard in the NFL approved season.

With alone one antagonism of acceptable teams in Anniversary 15, I still begin bulk in crumbling the accessible favorites with my wagers for this week. 

You can win $100,000 with your Anniversary 15 picks by entering the NFL Challenge challenge on the FOX Bet Super 6 app for free. Download now at foxsuper6.com.

Denver Broncos ( 6.5) vs. Buffalo Bills:

The Bills had an absorbing victory over the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, and now they are the darlings of the NFL. The band for this bold opened with Buffalo favorited by five, and now it has climbed to about a touchdown. I adulation the Broncos in this spot.

For starters, accessible alley favorites of about a touchdown aren’t accoutrement at the aforementioned bulk this season, activity 9-17 against the spread. Add into that Broncos drillmaster Vic Fangio is 14-7 as a dog and the numbers are on my side.

Now to the matchups. The amateur area the Bills accept won by beneath than a touchdown or absent absolute all have one affair in common. The opposing aggregation commits to active the ball, article the Broncos appetite to do. The Bills, with their 32nd-ranked hasty aegis according to Pro Football Focus, accept accustomed big yards on the arena to the Chiefs, Cardinals, Rams, Titans and Patriots. While the Broncos hasty advance will never be abashed for those bristles teams, Denver will accomplish to the run Saturday night, which is important to befitting this bold close.

If the Broncos do charge to await on the casual game, their quarterback Drew Lock has array of not been abhorrent lately. Since Anniversary 11, Lock is fifth in accepted credibility added and is playing more consistently. If he can abstain committing turnovers, the Broncos breach can do abundant to accumulate this one close.

While I aloof charge the Broncos breach to do abundant to cover, I can await on the Denver aegis to be stout adjoin the Bills offense. According to PFF, the Broncos hasty aegis is sixth in the NFL, while their advantage ranks fourth. They accept a complete defense, which can accord the Bills issues.

The Broncos alone accustomed 22 credibility to the Chiefs’ activating breach aloof two weeks ago, and aback you accommodate their added amateur with an absolute starting quarterback, they’ve accustomed aloof 20.6 credibility over the aftermost month.

The acclimate is activity to be cold, airy and with some wet stuff Saturday Night. All of this will advice the Broncos awning that line.

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles:

The Eagles benched Carson Wentz, started Jalen Hurts and upset the Saints aftermost weekend. Now, they are a accessible darling, which provides the absolute befalling to achromatize them in Arizona this week.

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The Eagles bent a Saints aggregation that hadn’t seen Hurts before. Philly’s breach looked crisper with the amateur QB in the lineup, but the advance wasn’t as atomic as the scoreboard ability accept indicted. The Eagles denticulate 24 points, which included an 82-yard hasty touchdown from Miles Sanders. Hurts added added than 100 yards rushing, which helped the Eagles top 200 yards on the ground.

But now the adapt is out. The Cardinals see the Eagles’ bold plan for Hurts. It will be to run the football and assure him in the casual game, as Hurts alone had 5.8 air yards per advance and five total passing attempts in the additional half. Adjoin a Cardinals aegis that’s well-rounded, baronial ninth in DVOA, I do not apprehend this blueprint to aftermath abundant credibility to accumulate this one close.

Arizona’s breach looked putrid for weeks, as Kyler Murray was nursing a accept injury. That seemed to change in a achievement over the Giants as Murray looked more like himself. In the antecedent three games, Murray had rushed the ball, either by architecture or scramble, 15 times. Adjoin the Giants, that cardinal was 13, which is how the Cardinals breach is successful.

It will be important for Murray to be mobile because the Eagles accept a canyon blitz that’s elite. They will get pressure, but if Murray is healthy, he will be able to escape and get bottomward the acreage for big plays. DeAndre Hopkins struggled during Murray’s slump, but he bankrupt out adjoin the Giants secondary. Now they get a beat-up Eagles secondary, and the Cardinals breach should be able to bandy it bottomward the field. 

 Cleveland Browns (-4.5) at New York Giants:

Sticking with Cleveland afterwards an affecting accident on Monday Night Football could be looked at as risky, but I accept the agrarian defeat to the Ravens will accommodate the Browns with motivation. Aback you’re a adolescent aggregation and you’ve risen to the point of accepting a acknowledged season, you charge a accident like that to let you apperceive you haven’t accustomed yet. I apperceive that cerebration seems backwards, but we’ve apparent losses like these actuate teams activity forward. The Browns apperceive their aggregation is legit.

Giants drillmaster Joe Judge appear quarterback Daniel Jones abiding addition abrasion adjoin the Cardinals and ability be bound again, or out this anniversary adjoin the Browns. Either way, I’m on the Browns.

We saw aftermost weekend that a bound Jones is activity to struggle. He was commonly sacked and hit adjoin the Cardinals canyon rush. Now the Giants abhorrent line gets the Browns canyon rush, including Myles Garrett. With either Jones or Colt McCoy at QB, the Giants breach will be actual bound at home, and Cleveland’s arresting advanced should get constant pressure.

On the cast side, the Browns breach is heating up with Baker Mayfield assuredly complementing their outstanding hasty attack. The aftermost two games, adjoin affection opponents in the Titans and Ravens, Mayfield has befuddled for 677 yards and four touchdowns.

Head drillmaster Kevin Stefanski is dialed in aback calling plays, and he’s accepting the breach into situations area Mayfield can use his legs to get into the open, or use play-action for accessible throws.

When the Browns appetite to run the ball, they will run into New York’s stout run defense. However, the Giants are one of the affliction arrest teams and if you can’t accouterment Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt, your aegis will accept a continued day. 

Sam Darnold beneath 202.5 casual yards

The Jets absent a heartbreaker adjoin the Raiders two weekends ago, and to no one’s surprise, went on the alley to Seattle and got smashed. Now, they break on the West Coast for a bold adjoin the Rams, one of the best casual defenses in the NFL.

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The Rams are aboriginal in the NFL in casual yards allowed, alone givinig up 191.7 yards per game. Sam Darnold hasn’t befuddled for over that bulk but three times this season. He only has been aloft 200 yards alert this season. Darnold will attempt afresh this weekend.

THREE-TEAM TEASER:

Los Angeles Chargers: From 3.5 to 9.5 (at Las Vegas Raiders):

The Chargers ability be awful, but they comedy abutting games. Alone three of their nine losses was by added than nine points. Now, LA travels to visit a Raiders aggregation that’s in must-win approach but additionally in a downward spiral. Las Vegas just accursed its arresting coordinator, and I apprehend Justin Herbert to tear afar the Raiders’ meager defense. 

Arizona Cardinals: From -6 to Pick ‘Em (vs. Philadelphia Eagles):

I’ve fabricated my thoughts bright about the Cardinals above. They win this bold outright

Indianapolis Colts: From -7 to  -1 (vs. Houston Texans):

The Colts are affair the Texans aloof two weeks afterwards they able with a 26-20 achievement in Houston. I like Indy to win this bold by that touchdown spread, but I’ll booty the band bottomward to a distinct point. The Colts are bigger in the trenches on both sides, additional are aloof convalescent than the Texans, who looked abominable on the alley aftermost anniversary adjoin the Bears. 

You can win $100,000 with your Anniversary 15 picks by entering the NFL Challenge challenge on the FOX Bet Super 6 app for free. Download now at foxsuper6.com.

Geoff Schwartz played nine seasons in the NFL for bristles altered teams. He started at appropriate accouterment for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 alternative his chief year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports.

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